No odds source connected yet
The engine is built and tested — margin removal, edge detection and stake sizing all work. What is missing is live prices: an odds feed for the sharp reference line, and a BetPawa reader for the prices you can actually bet at. Until both are wired, there is nothing honest to show here.
How a bet gets picked
- Take the sharp bookmaker's price — the market's best estimate of the truth.
- Strip its margin using Shin's method, which takes a bigger bite out of longshots than favourites, matching how books really price.
- Compare BetPawa's price for the same market.
- If BetPawa implies a lower probability than the truth, that gap is the edge.
- Stake a quarter of Kelly, capped at 2% of bankroll, and only when the edge clears 2%.
Worked example
| Sharp price | BetPawa | True prob | Edge | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | 2.15 | 51.0% | +9.7% | 2,000 |
| 2.50 | 2.80 | 38.3% | +7.4% | 1,023 |
| 1.55 | 1.50 | 62.8% | -5.8% | 0 |
Illustration only, against your configured bankroll. Note the last row: a worse price than the truth returns a zero stake rather than a small one.
PAPER mode. Nothing is staked. Every recommendation is recorded with the price offered and, after kickoff, the price the market closed at. Real money is not enabled until that record shows consistently better prices than the close — profit over a few hundred bets is mostly luck, and would happily endorse a losing system.